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«                  Final Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) for the NO2  National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)       ...»

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Final Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) for the NO2 

National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

January 2010 

 

 

 

 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 

Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards 

Health and Environmental Impact Division 

Air Benefit‐Cost Group 

Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 

Table of Contents 

        Page  Executive Summary      ES.1 Overview …………………………………………………………………………………………  ES‐1    ES.2 Summary of Analytic Approach for the Analysis of Approximated       Future Near‐Roadway NO2 Exceedances of Target NAAQS………….….  ES‐3    ES.3. Results from Screening Level Near‐Roadway Analysis…………………….  ES‐5    ES.4. Caveats and Limitations………………………………………………………………….  ES‐7    Chapter 1: Introduction and Background    1.1 Background………………………………………………………………………………………   1‐1    1.2 Role of the Regulatory Impact Analysis in the NAAQS Setting Process.  1‐2 

1.3 Overview and Design of the RIA…………………………………………….………….  1‐5 

1.4 NO2 Standard Alternatives Considered……………………………………………..  1‐8   

1.5 References……………………………………………………………………………………….  1‐9    Chapter 2: Air Quality Analysis 

2.1 Sources of NO2 …………………………………………………………………………….…..  2‐1 

2.2 Air Quality Monitoring Data………………………………………………………..…….  2‐2 

2.3 Air Quality Analysis……………………………………………………………………..….…  2‐8 

2.4 Results……………………………………………………………………………………….……..  2‐24 

2.5 Summary…………………………………………………………………………………….…….  2‐30 

2.6 References………………………………………………………………………………..………  2‐31    Appendix 2a: Monitor adjustment selection, Roadway field studies, 2005‐2007 and projected  2020 Design Values  2a.1 Monitor adjustment selection…………………………………………………………  2a‐1  2a.2 2005‐2007 and 2020 design values

  Chapter 3: Emissions Controls Analysis – Design and Analytical Results    3.1 Designing the Control Strategy Analysis…………………………………………….   3‐1 

3.2 Control Measures ……………………………………………………………………………..  3‐2 

3.3 Estimated Emission Reductions……………………………………………….………..   3‐3 

3.4 Costs of Mobile Source Controls………………………………………………………..  3‐4 

3.5 Key Limitations………………………………………………………………………………....   3‐6    i    Chapter 4: Benefits Analysis Approach and Results 

4.1 NO2 Health Benefits……………………………………………………………………………  4‐1 

4.2 PM2.5 Health Co‐Benefits…………………………………………………………………….  4‐3    4.3 Ozone Co‐benefits……………………………………………………………………………..  4‐15 

4.4 Unquantified Welfare Benefits……………………………………………………….….  4‐16    4.5 Limitations and Uncertainties…………………………………………………………….  4‐26 

4.6 Discussion…………………………………………………………….……………………………  4‐29 

4.7 References…………………………………………………………………………………………. 4‐31    Appendix 4a ‐ NO2 Benefits Methodology   4a.1 Introduction

4a.2 Primary Benefits Approach

4a.3 Overview of analytical framework for benefits analysis

4a.4 Estimating Avoided Health Effects from NO2 Exposure

4a.5 Valuation of Avoided Health Effects from NO2 Exposure

4a.6 Limitations and Uncertainty

4a.7 Discussion

4a.8 References

  Chapter 5: Estimates of Costs and Benefits 

5.1 Benefits and Costs for Future Near‐Roadway NO2 Levels….….……….……  5‐2 

5.2 Discussion of Uncertainties and Limitations……………………………….........  5‐3    Chapter 6: Statutory and Executive Order Reviews  A. Executive Order 12866: Regulatory Planning and Review  B. Paperwork Reduction Act  C. Paperwork Reduction Act  D. Unfunded Mandates Reform Act  E. Executive Order 13045: Protection of Children from Environmental Health & Safety  Risks  H. Executive Order 13211: Actions that Significantly Affect Energy Supply, Distribution or  Use  I. National Technology Transfer and Advancement Act  J. Executive Order 12898: Federal Actions to Address Environmental Justice in Minority  Populations and Low‐Income Population

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ES.1 Overview This Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) provides illustrative estimates of the incremental costs and monetized human health benefits of attaining a revised short-term Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) within the current community-wide monitoring network of 409 monitors. Because this analysis only considers counties with NO2 monitors, the possibility exists that there may be many more potential nonattainment areas than have been analyzed in this RIA.

The final NAAQS is a new short-term NO2 standard based on the 3-year average of the th 98 percentile of 1-hour daily maximum concentrations, establishing a new standard of 100 ppb. We also analyzed a lower level of 80 parts per billion (ppb) and an upper level of 125 ppb.

It is important to reiterate that this analysis does not attempt to estimate attainment or nonattainment for any areas of the country other than those counties currently served by one of the 409 monitors in the current network. Chapter 2 explains that the current network is focused on community-wide ambient levels of NO2, and not near-roadway levels, which may be significantly higher. The final rule also contains requirements for an NO2 monitoring network that would include monitors near major roadways. We recognize that once a network of nearroadway monitors is put in place, more areas could find themselves exceeding the new hourly NO2 NAAQS. However for this RIA analysis, we lack sufficient data to predict which additional counties might exceed the new NAAQS after implementation of a near-roadway monitoring network if they do not currently have a monitor. (Regional scale models such as the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Modeling System (CMAQ) do not provide a sufficient level of sub-grid detail to estimate near-road concentrations, and local-scale models such as AERMOD cannot model large regions with appropriate characterization of the near-road component of ambient air quality).

In this RIA, we projected current area-wide monitor values to future year monitor values directly, using future year CMAQ modeling outputs that take into account expected changes in emissions from 2006 to 2020. Because a near-roadway monitoring network does not currently exist, it was not possible to do this same direct projection into the future for near-roadway peaks. Because short-term peak exposures may occur near roadways, we conducted an analysis to approximate such peak exposures. This analysis relies on current and future estimated air quality concentrations at area-wide monitors, making adjustments to future year projections using derived estimates of the relationship between future year area-wide air quality peaks and current near-roadway peaks. This analysis, which effectively extrapolates ES-1 future year near-roadway air quality from projected area-wide concentrations, represents a screening level approximation with significant additional uncertainties.

The RIA for the proposed NAAQS included an analysis based on community level exposure, represented by the current area-wide monitoring network. Because the final NAAQS is based on expected near-roadway (peak) exposures, the RIA for the final NAAQS focuses on the near-roadway analysis (which was included in the RIA for the proposed NAAQS as an alternative analysis). It is important to note that no current monitors in the (area-wide) network are projected to violate either the final NAAQS level of 100 ppb, or the lower bound of 80 ppb, in 2020, assuming a baseline of no additional control beyond the controls expected from rules that are already in place (including the current PM2.5 and ozone NAAQS). 1 As noted above, we recognize that once a network of near-roadway monitors is put in place, more areas could find themselves exceeding the new hourly NO2 NAAQS.

This RIA chiefly serves two purposes. First, it provides the public with an estimate of the expected costs and benefits of attaining a new NO2 NAAQS. Second, it fulfills the requirements of Executive Order 12866 and the guidelines of OMB Circular A-4. 2 These documents present guidelines for EPA to assess the benefits and costs of the selected regulatory option, as well as one less stringent and one more stringent option. As stated above, we chose 80 ppb as an analytic lower bound, and 125 ppb as an analytic upper bound.

In setting primary ambient air quality standards, EPA’s responsibility under the law is to establish standards that protect public health, regardless of the costs of implementing a new standard. The Clean Air Act requires EPA, for each criteria pollutant, to set a standard that protects public health with “an adequate margin of safety.” As interpreted by the Agency and the courts, the Act requires EPA to create standards based on health considerations only.

The prohibition against the consideration of cost in the setting of the primary air quality standard, however, does not mean that costs or other economic considerations are unimportant or should be ignored. The Agency believes that consideration of costs and benefits is essential to making efficient, cost effective decisions for implementation of these standards.

The impacts of cost and efficiency are considered by states during this process, as they decide what timelines, strategies, and policies are most appropriate. This RIA is intended to inform the public about the potential costs and benefits associated with a hypothetical scenario that may For this RIA, we chose an analysis year of 2020. Although the actual attainment year is likely to be 2017, time and resource limitations dictated use of pre-existing model runs, which all focused on 2020. In addition, we do not have emission inventory projections for 2017; such projections are done for 5-year intervals.

U.S. Office of Management and Budget. Circular A-4, September 17, 2003. Available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/circulars/a004/a-4.pdf.

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ES.2 Summary of Analytic Approach for the Analysis of Approximated Future NearRoadway NO2 Exceedances of Target NAAQS Our assessment of the NO2 NAAQS and lower and upper bounds includes several key elements, including specification of baseline NO2 emissions and concentrations; development of illustrative control strategies to attain the standard in 2020; and analyses of the control costs and health benefits of reaching each level. Additional information on the methods employed by the Agency for this RIA is presented below.

Overview of Baseline Emissions Forecast and Baseline NO2 Concentrations

The baseline emissions and concentrations for this RIA are based on NOx emissions data from the 2002 National Emissions Inventory (NEI), and baseline NO2 concentration values from 2005-2007 across the community-wide monitoring network. We used results from the community multi-scale air quality model (CMAQ) simulations from the ozone NAAQS RIA to calculate the expected reduction in ambient NO2 concentrations between the 2002 base year and 2020. More specifically, design values (i.e. air quality concentrations at each monitor) were calculated for 2020 using monitored air quality concentrations from 2002 and modeled air quality projections for 2020, countywide emissions inventory data for 2002 and 2005-7, and emissions inventory projections for 2020. These data were used to create ratios between emissions and air quality, and those ratios (relative response factors, or RRFs) were used to estimate air quality monitor design values for 2020.

Because a near-roadway monitoring network does not currently exist, it was not possible to do the same direct projection into the future for near-roadway peaks as was done for the area-wide analysis in the proposal RIA, to analyze the standard levels of 80 ppb, 100 ppb, and 125 ppb (98th percentile value). Therefore, the near-roadway analysis represents a much more uncertain screening level approximation of future year near-roadway air quality.



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