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«Prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830 Assessment of Various Types of Uncertainty in the Techa River Dosimetry ...»

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Prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy

under Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Assessment of Various Types of

Uncertainty in the Techa River

Dosimetry System

BA Napier

MO Degteva

LR Anspaugh

September 2008


This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the

United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency

thereof, nor Battelle Memorial Institute, nor any of their employees, makes any

warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof.


operated by BATTELLE for the


under Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830 Printed in the United States of America Available to DOE and DOE contractors from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information, P.O. Box 62, Oak Ridge, TN 37831-0062;

ph: (865) 576-8401 fax: (865) 576-5728 email: reports@adonis.osti.gov Available to the public from the National Technical Information Service, U.S. Department of Commerce, 5285 Port Royal Rd., Springfield, VA 22161 ph: (800) 553-6847 fax: (703) 605-6900 email: orders@ntis.fedworld.gov online ordering: http://www.ntis.gov/ordering.htm This document was printed on recycled paper.




B.A. Napier, M.O. Degteva, L.R. Anspaugh Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland, Washington, USA Urals Research Center for Radiation Medicine Chelyabinsk, Russian Federation University of Utah

–  –  –


The TRDS Databases

Calculation of Dose

Preliminary Assignment of Uncertainty Types


Planned Approach to Uncertainty Propagation

Potential Dosimetric Product Structures

Distribution History of this Report


Appendix: Generic TRDS Output Structure

ii Introduction Recent developments in evaluation of dose-response models in light of uncertain dose data (Stram and Kopecky 2003; Schafer and Gilbert 2006) have highlighted the importance of different types of uncertainties in the development of individual dose estimates. These include uncertain parameters that may be either shared or unshared within the dosimetric cohort, and also the nature of the type of uncertainty as either classical or Berkson. This report is an initial attempt to identify the nature of the various input parameters and calculational methods incorporated in the Techa River Dosimetry System (based on the TRDS-2000 implementation as a starting point, with additions for recently-developed capabilities).

This report reviews the database, equations, and input parameters, and then identifies the author’s interpretations of their general nature. It closes with some questions for the users of the data (epidemiologists and biostatisticians), so that the next implantation of the TRDS will provide the most useful information.

The TRDS Databases The TRDS databases consist of three modules - the first and second modules are “system databases” which contain parameters used in the dose estimation, and the third is “input data” for the calculations.

Thus, the first and second are “internal modules” of TRDS, but the third is an “external module.” These modules are:

1. An environmental module that contains the following data for each of the Techa

Riverside settlements:

• Age-dependent mean annual-intake levels of radionuclides, and

• Mean annual external dose rates in air near the shoreline, outdoors in the residence areas, and indoors.

2. A metabolic module that contains the results of age-dependent model calculations of doses in different organs per unit intake for all radionuclides ingested (dose-conversion factors).

3. An individual-data module that contains the following information for each of the Extended Techa River Cohort (ETRC) members: identification code, year of birth, year of entry to the epidemiologic catchment area, year of migration from the catchment area, vital status, year of vital status determination, and residence history within the contaminated areas. This third module is prepared and updated by epidemiologists working on companion studies. This module will also contain individual evaluated dosimetric information, linked by the identification code, which indicates the type of internal dose calculation that minimizes the uncertainty of internal dose (discussed further below). This module is the “input data” for the individual doses estimated for the cohort by the TRDS.

These components of the database essentially provide the input data from which the dosimetry system runs.

Calculation of Dose The method being used for the TRDS dose calculations is relatively simple and can be

written as a single equation in four parts as Equation 1:

–  –  –

Here the upper line in the internal brackets represents the dose from the Techa River, the middle line represents dose from exposure to fallout from the East Urals Radioactive Trace (EURT) (source s = 1) and the Karachay Trace (KT) (source s = 2), and the lower line represents dose from medical x-ray examinations. (Note that doses from ingestion of iodine from Mayak releases are theoretically included in the TRDS, but the parameters will only be calculated and

added to the system later). The individual components are:

Do,Y,i = absorbed dose (Gy) in organ o accumulated through calendar year Y to individual i;

Y = the calculational endpoint for a particular individual (can vary according to the analyst’s wishes within the range 1950–2015);

bi = the year of birth of individual i;

y = year of environmental exposure (external irradiation and intake of nuclides). The minimum value of y in the summation is ymin = MAX{1949, bi, year of first moving to the Techa River, EURT or KT areas};

P = the endpoint of external exposure and intake of radionuclides for a particular individual (can vary within the range 1950 – Y, P≤Y).

L = location (settlement) identifier;

My,L,i = fraction of year y spent in location L by individual i;

= identifier of ingested radionuclide (89Sr, 90Sr, 95Zr, 95Nb, 103Ru, 106Ru, 137Cs, 141Ce, r Ce or 131I);

τi = y − bi, the age of individual i in year y (years);

I*y,r,L = intake function (Bq) for year y, radionuclide r, and location L (function of age τ, related to y);

I* = I × ξi, where ξi is a modifier predetermined for individual i equal to 1.0 (village average), IMRi (individual to model ratio), or HSRi (household-specific ratio), discussed below;

DFr,o,Y-y = conversion factor (Gy Bq-1) for dose accumulated in organ o in year Y-y from intake of radionuclide r in year y (function of gender and age, related to y);

Y-y = time since intake, years;

Ao = conversion factor from absorbed dose in air to absorbed dose in organ o (function of age, related to y);

DRiv,L,y = absorbed dose in air near river shoreline at location L received in year y (Gy).

Rout/Riv,L = ratio of dose rate in air outdoors at homes to the dose rate by the river at location L;

Rin/out = ratio of dose rate in air indoors to that outdoors;

T1 = time spent on river bank (relative to whole year) (function of age, related to y);

T2 = time spent outdoors (relative to whole year) (function of age, related to y);

T3 = time spent indoors (relative to whole year) (function of age, related to y).

Gs,r,L = surface deposition (Bq m-2) at location L of radionuclide r from fallout from the EURT (s=1) or KT (s=2);

δs,y = 0 or 1 depending on s and y. For the EURT (s = 1), δ1,y = 0 for y 1957, and for the KT (s = 2), δ2,y = 0 for y 1967;

Es,r,y = intake function (Bq per Bq m-2) for year y, radionuclide r, and fallout source s (EURT or KT), (function of age, related to y), further described below;

Ds,r,y = absorbed dose in air (Gy) received in year y per unit surface deposition of radionuclide r from fallout from the EURT (s = 1) or KT (s = 2); and Xo(e,y,τ) = absorbed dose to organ o (Gy) from medical examination e in year y for age τ.

–  –  –

where I R 90 = Annual 90Sr intake for adult residents of the reference settlement (Muslyumovo);

Sr α Age, R = Annual 90Sr intake for other age groups relative to that for adults living in the reference Sr 90 settlement;

f LSr 90 = Annual ratio of 90Sr intake for location L to 90Sr intake for residents of the reference settlement; and R y, r / Sr = Annual ratio of radionuclide (r)-to-90Sr intake for location L.

L The TRDS calculation of uncertainty will be based on a Monte Carlo approach to implement calculation of the basic dose equation. The required inputs for these analyses have been developed over the course of Project 1.1. The actual results vary depending on the analysis being undertaken, i.e., the specific individual, the particular calculation endpoint year Y, organ of interest o, and route of exposure (internal or external).

In the basic equation, the parameters bi, ymin, P, My,L, and τ for each individual come from individual-life-history information and are a series of constants. All of the other parameter values are either calculated or approximated and have associated uncertainty.

It is possible to calculate a village-average intake function for every member of the ETRC. For about half of the cohort, an individual dose based on one or more whole-body counter measurements may be estimated. For these individual dose estimates, the general intake function is normalized by the whole-body count(s). The ratio between the generic estimate and the individual estimate is called the Individual to Model Ratio (IMR). In addition, for many people, IMR values are available for others within their personal household. These may be used to scale the generic intake function for everyone within the family or household, as the average of the household IMR values. This is called a Household-specific Ratio (HSR). Every member of the ETRC.has been evaluated and the best type of intake function (that which minimizes the uncertainty based on use of the whole-body counts through Individual-to-model ratios (IMR), Household-specific ratios (HSR), or village averages) has been assigned (Milestone 18 – Shagina et al. 2007); these assignments are available in a database linked to the individual identification code. The advantage of the assignment is that a unique uncertainty distribution is associated with each assignment. Because the HSR are based on dose estimates to other individuals, and all are based on the generic intake function, the order in which the individual dose calculations are performed is important so that necessary cross-references are available.

A recent and stable derivation of the key radionuclide intake term Iy,r,L is described in detail in Tolstykh et al. (2001) and updated in Tolstyk et al. (2008). It has a very complex uncertainty structure (Tolstykh et al. 2002; 2008). The variation of intake levels within a single village and age cohort depends mainly on the source of drinking-water supply. In the TRDSsystem, the village-average WBC-determined body burdens of 90Sr were used to derive the deterministic estimate of accumulated dose. The village average was derived from the entire distribution of measured body burdens of residents of that village. In future versions of the code, an individual’s measurements will be used if they are available and appropriate, if not but the individual has measured relatives in the same household, an average will be taken of those, or if neither are available, then the village average will again be used. The relation of the actual measurements to the model predictions is described using Individual-to-Model Ratios (IMR) (Degteva et al. 1999). For a person of age τ at the beginning of intake and who was measured by WBC at the year tm, the value of IMR is determined as the ratio of an individual-body-burden measurement, Aind(τ,tm), to the value derived from the reference model (representing a permanent

resident adult in Muslyumovo), Amod(τ,tm):

IMR = Aind (τ, t m )[ Amod (τ, t m )].

−1 (3) In the case of repeated measurements, the value of IMR is determined as the average of all ratios of WBC measurements-to-the respective reference-model values. IMR’s serve as age- and timenormalized values that permit the analysis of the entire set of individual data on 90Sr in members of the ETRC.

The uncertainty in intake and retention of 90Sr for any one individual for whom a villageaverage estimate is used is defined by the actual distribution of IMR developed for that village (Degteva et al. 1999). The IMR includes all the TRDS-2000 parameters that go into estimation of term Iy,r,L, except the location factors fL. As defined and presented in Degteva et al. (1999), the IMR is the ratio of the measurement for a specific village to the prediction made as if that individual lived in Muslyumovo. Thus, it is necessary to adjust the basic IMR to the specific village by dividing it by the factor f LSr 90, defined as the annual ratio of 90Sr intake for location L to 90Sr intake for residents of the reference settlement of Muslyumovo. Thus, the normalized IMR is the ratio of the actual measurements to the model prediction for the specific location.

This normalization provides the appropriate magnitude of the range of uncertainty for the predicted intakes.

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